Israel Medical Association Journal

Background: Frequent readmissions significantly contribute to health care costs as well as work load in internal medicine wards.

Objective: To develop a simple scoring method that includes basic demographic and medical characteristics of  elderly patients in internal medicine wards, which would allow prediction of readmission within 3 months of discharge.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study of 496 hospitalized patients using data collected from discharge letters in the computerized archives. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed and factors that were significantly associated with readmission were selected to construct a scoring tool. Validity was assessed in a cohort of 200 patients.

Results: During a 2 year follow-up 292 patients were readmitted at least once within 3 months of discharge. Age 80 or older, any degree of impaired cognition, nursing home residence, congestive heart failure, and creatinine level > 1.5 mg/dl were found to be strong predictors of readmission. The presence of each variable was scored as 1. A score of 3 or higher in the derivation and validation cohorts corresponded with a positive predictive value of 80% and 67%, respectively, when evaluating the risk of rehospitalization.

Conclusions: We propose a practical, readily available five-item scoring tool that allows prediction of most unplanned readmissions within 3 months. The strength of this scoring tool, as compared with previously published scores, is its simplicity and straightforwardness.
 

Background: Type 2 diabetes, an extreme state of glucose intolerance, has been found to be associated with cancer mortality; less is known about impaired glucose tolerance and cancer incidence.

Objectives: To examine the association between fasting and post-load plasma glucose and insulin, and the 20 year incidence of cancer.

Methods: We followed a sample of the Jewish Israeli population (n=2780), free of cancer at baseline,

from 1977-1980 to 1999 for cancer incidence and mortality. Baseline fasting and 1 and 2 hour post-load plasma glucose levels were recorded, as was insulin in 1797 of them.

Results: During 20 years, 329 individuals (11.8%) developed cancer. Cancer incidence for all sites differed between men and women (13.0% and 10.7%, P = 0.03), and among different glucose tolerance status groups (P = 0.01). Cancer incidence hazard ratio, by glucose status adjusted for gender, age, ethnicity, smoking and body mass index, was 1.24 (95%CI 0.96–1.62, P = 0.10) for impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance, and 1.32 (95%CI 0.96–1.81, P = 0.09) for type 2 diabetes mellitus, compared to those who were normoglycemic at baseline. Fasting insulin and cancer incidence were not associated.

Conclusions: An increased long-term cancer risk for individuals with impaired fasting glucose or glucose tolerance, or diabetes, is suggested. Even this modest association could have substantial public health consequences.
 

Background: Arabs in Israel have high morbidity and mortality from diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Obesity is a risk factor for both conditions.

Objectives: To investigate the prevalence of obesity (body mass index > 30 kg/m²), subjects' knowledge and behaviors, and their reports on practices of health-care professionals regarding body weight among Arabs and Jews.

Methods: The study participants (n=880) were randomly sampled from the urban population of the Hadera district in Israel. Data on demographic, socioeconomic and lifestyle characteristics; reports on height, current body weight and body weight at the age of 18 years; knowledge and behavior; and health-care professionals' practices with regard to body weight were obtained by interview. Anthropometric measurements were performed subsequently.

Results: Information on BMI[1] was available on 868 participants (49% Arabs, 49% women, median age 46 years). Although the median BMI did not differ significantly between Arabs and Jews at age 18, the prevalence of current obesity was 52% in Arab women compared to 31% in Jewish women (P < 0.001), and 25% in Arab men compared to 23% in Jewish men (P = 0.6). On multivariate analysis, obesity was significantly associated with age, BMI at the age of 18 years, leisure time physical activity and cigarette smoking, but not with ethnicity. Fewer Arabs reported measuring their body weight and Arab women were less frequently advised to maintain an active lifestyle.

Conclusions: The high prevalence of obesity among Arab women may be explained by lifestyle characteristics. Prevention of obesity in Arabs should be directed at women and should start preferably before adulthood.

Objectives: To assess the effect of a vaginal ring delivering estradiol and progesterone in postmenopausal women and to determine whether continuous administration can relieve climacteric symptoms, produce an acceptable pattern of vaginal bleeding and control endometrial proliferation.

Methods: Twenty-nine postmenopausal women with an intact uterus were studied. All had climacteric symptoms. The vaginal rings contained 0.36 g estradiol and either 3.6 g progesterone (high dose progesterone) or 1.8 g (low dose progesterone), and were kept in place for 4–6 months. Serum progesterone, estradiol and estrone were measured and endometrial thickness determined. All women kept a daily diary of bleeding/spotting and completed a questionnaire on climacteric symptoms at monthly intervals. The low dose progesterone group comprised 14 women and the high dose progesterone group 15 women.

Results: A total of 18 patients (9 in each group) completed the study. Mean levels of estradiol, estrone and progesterone were at their peak after 2 to 4 weeks. All rings were effective in alleviating vasomotor symptoms, although there was evidence of the "escape from effect" in month 6. Endometrial thickness increased in 6 of the 29 women but biopsy in each case showed no evidence of hyperplasia. Of the 18 women who completed the study, 5 had amenorrhea throughout, 7 had amenorrhea after 3 months, and the remainder had one or two bleeding episodes after 3 months. Therapy was discontinued in 11 women.

Conclusions: A vaginal ring delivering estradiol and progesterone controlled climacteric symptoms, prevented endometrial proliferation, and provided an acceptable bleeding pattern. It should be viewed as a promising alternative for short-term estrogen-progesterone therapy.

Background: Due to multiple chronic illness and disability, the elderly consume a disproportionately large share of medications.

Objectives: To assess the patterns and determinants of drug use among the community dwelling old-old population.

Methods: The study population included 1,369 old-old persons from the baseline data of the Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Aging Study (CALAS), which is based on a national random stratified sample of the Israeli Jewish population aged 75–94 years.

Results: The mean number of drugs used by the study population was 3.3, and only 12.5% did not consume any drugs. Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that women used significantly more drugs than men, and that those born in Europe took significantly more drugs than those born in Israel and Asia-Africa. The number of medical conditions was the strongest predictor of drug use. Hospitalizations during the last year and frequent visits to family physician were also significant factors related to drug use. All variables combined explained 40% of the variance in drug use by the old-old. The most commonly used therapeutic groups were cardiovascular drugs (53%), psychotropic drugs (31%), analgesics (30%), and gastrointestinal drugs (28%).

Conclusions: Our data indicate that in addition to the association of drug use with health status and healthcare utilization, the number and type of drugs taken vary with gender and place of birth.

Background: Genes that confer mild or moderate susceptibility to breast cancer may be involved in the pathogenesis of sporadic breast cancer, modifying the phenotypic expression of mutant BRCA1/BRCA2 alleles. An attractive candidate is the insulin-like growth factor I, a known mitogen to mammary ductal cells in vivo and in vitro, whose serum levels were reportedly elevated in breast cancer patients.

Objective: To evaluate the contribution of the IGF-1 gene polymorphism to breast cancer risk by genotyping for a polymorphic allele size in breast cancer patients and controls.

Methods: We analyzed allele size distribution of the polymorphic CA repeat upstream of the IGF-I gene in 412 Israeli Jewish women: 268 women with breast cancer (212-sporadic and 56 carriers of either a BRCA1:or BRCA2 mutation), and 144 controls. Genotyping was accomplished by radioactive polymerase chain reaction of the relevant genomic region and size fractionation on polyacrylamide gels with subsequent auloradiography,

Results: Among women with breast cancer, with or without BRCA germline mutations, 196 and 198 basepair alleles were present in 4.7% (25/536 alleles), compared with 9% (26/288) controls (P = 0.02). This difference was more pronounced and significant in the non-Ashkenazi population. Conversely, the smaller size allele (176 bp) was present in the breast cancer group only {3/536, 0.6%).

Conclusions: The IGF-I polymorphism may serve as a marker for breast cancer risk in the general Jewish population, in particular non-Ashkenazi Jews, but extension and confirmation of these preliminary data are needed.
 

Background: Platelet adhesion and aggregation are mediated by specific platelet membrane glycoproteins GPIa/IIa, GPIba, and GPIIb/IIIa, and are essential steps in thrombus formation and development of acute myocardial infarction.

Objective: To evaluate the risks exerted by each of the following polymorphisms: HPA-1a/b in GPIIIa; 807C/T in GPIa; and HPA-2a/b, VNTR and Kozak C/T in GPIba in young males with AMI[1]..

Methods: We conducted a case-control study of 100 young males with first AMI before the age of 53 and 119 healthy controls of similar age. All subjects were tested for the above polymorphisms.

Results: The allele frequencies of each of the platelet polymorphism were not significantly different between the young men with AMI and the controls. Smoking alone was associated with a 9.97-fold risk, and the presence of at least one metabolic risk factor resulted in a 2.57-fold risk of AMI.

Conclusion: These results indicate that platelet glycoproteins polymorphisms are not an independent risk factor for AMI.

Background: Familial Mediterranean fever is an autosomal recessive disease characterized by sporadic attacks of inflammation affecting the serosal spaces. The gene associated with FMF[1] (MEFV), mainly expressed in neutrophils, was recently found to be expressed also in primary cultures of serosal origin (peritoneal and synovial fibroblasts). A C5a inhibitor, previously detected in normal serosal fluids, was recently identified in serosal cultures as well, and was found to be deficient in serosal fluids and cultures obtained from FMF patients.

Objective: To investigate the effect of colchicine (the main therapeutic agent for FMF patients) and certain inflammatory cytokines (IL-1b, TNF-a, IFN-a, IFN-g) on MEFV expression and C5a inhibitor activity in neutrophils and primary peritoneal fibroblast cultures.

Methods: Human primary peritoneal fibroblast cultures and neutrophils were studied for MEFV expression and C5a inhibitor activity, using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and C5a-induced myeloperoxidase assay, respectively, in the presence and absence of colchicine and cytokines.

Results: MEFV expression in neutrophils was high and could not be induced further. Its expression in the peritoneal fibroblasts was lower than in neutrophils and could be induced using colchicine and cytokines parallel with induction of C5a inhibitor activity. Semi-quantitative RT-PCR[2] assays enabled estimation of MEFV induction by the cytokines at 10–100-fold and could not be further increased by concomitant addition of colchicine.

Conclusion: Serosal tissues, which are afflicted in FMF, express colchicine and cytokine-inducible MEFV and contain inducible C5a inhibitor activity. The relation between colchicine ability to induce MEFV and C5a inhibitor activity, and its efficacy in FMF treatment, require further investigation.

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[1] RT-PCR = reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction

[2] FMF = familial Mediterranean fever