Israel Medical Association Journal

Background: Determining the prognosis of patients with heart failure is essential for patient management and clinical trial conduct. The relative value of traditional prognostic criteria remains unclear and the assessment of long-term prognosis for individual patients is problematic.

Objectives: To determine the ability of clinical, hemodynamic and echocardiographic parameters to predict the long-term prognosis of patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy.

Methods: We investigated the ability of clinical, hemodynamic and echocardiographic parameters to predict the long-term prognosis of individual patients in a large, representative, contemporary cohort of idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDCM) patients referred to Johns Hopkins from 1997 to 2004 for evaluation of cardiomyopathy. In all patients a baseline history was taken, and physical examination, laboratory studies, echocardiogram, right heart catheterization and endomyocardial biopsy were performed.

Results: In 171 IDCM patients followed for a median 3.5 years, there were 50 long-term event-free survivors (LTS) (median survival 6.4 years) and 34 patients died or underwent ventricular assist device placement or transplantation within 5 years (NLTS; non-long-term survivors) (median time to event 1.83 years. Established risk factors (gender, race, presence of diabetes, serum creatinine, sodium) and the use of accepted heart failure medications (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, beta blockers) were similar between the two groups. Although LTS had younger age, higher ejection fraction (EF) and lower New York Heart Association (NYHA) class at presentation, the positive predictive value of an EF< 25% was 64% (95% CI 41%–79%) and of NYHA class > 2 was 53% (95% CI 36–69%). A logistic model incorporating these three variables incorrectly classified 29% of patients.

Conclusions: IDCM exhibits a highly variable natural history and standard clinical predictors have limited ability to classify IDCM patients into broad prognostic categories. These findings suggest that there are important host-environmental factors still unappreciated in the biology of IDCM.
 

Background: Appropriate antibiotic use is of both clinical and economic significance to any health system and should be given adequate attention. Prior to this study, no in-depth information was available on antibiotic use patterns in the emergency department of Hadassah Medical Center.

Objectives: To describe the use and misuse of antibiotics and their associated costs in the emergency department of Hadassah Medical Center.

Methods: We analyzed the charts of 657 discharged patients and 45 admitted patients who received antibiotics in Hadassah Medical Center’s emergency department during a 6 week period (29 April – 11 June 2007). A prescription was considered appropriate or inappropriate if the choice of antibiotic, dose and duration by the prescribing physician after diagnosis was considered suitable or wrong by the infectious diseases consultant evaluating the prescriptions according to Kunin’s criteria.

Results: The overall prescribing rate of antibiotics was 14.5% (702/4830) of which 42% were broad- spectrum antibiotics. The evaluated antibiotic prescriptions numbered 1105 (96 prescriptions containing 2 antibiotics, 2 prescriptions containing 3 antibiotics), and 54% of them were considered appropriate. The total inappropriate cost was 3583 NIS[1] (1109 USD PPP[2]) out of the total antibiotic costs of 27,300 NIS (8452 USD PPP). The annual total antibiotic cost was 237,510 NIS (73,532 USD PPP) and the annual total inappropriate cost was 31,172 NIS (9648 USD PPP). The mean costs of inappropriate prescriptions were highest for respiratory (112 NIS, 35 USD PPP) and urinary tract infection (93 NIS, 29 USD PPP). There were more cases when the optimal cost was lower than the actual cost (N=171) than when optimal cost was higher than the actual cost (N=9). In the first case, the total inappropriate costs were 3805 NIS (1,178 USD PPP), and in the second case, -222 NIS (68.7 USD PPP).

Conclusions: The use of antibiotics in emergency departments should be monitored, especially in severely ill patients who require broad-spectrum antibiotics and for antibiotics otherwise restricted in the hospital wards. Our findings indicate that 12% of the total antibiotic costs could have been avoided if all prescriptions were optimal.

Background: Patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy are prone to ventricular arrhythmias and sudden death. Identifying patients at risk of sudden death is difficult.

Objectives: To determine whether microvolt T-wave alternans detected during exercise or rapid atrial pacing can identify patients with HCM[1] who are at risk of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden death.

Methods: This prospective observational study included 21 patients with HCM: 11 with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy, 9 with non-obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and 1 with apical hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. TWA[2] was measured while the patients were on anti-arrhythmic medication.

Results: TWA was positive in 9 patients (43%) and negative in 12 (57%). Three patients were resuscitated after sudden death before their enrolment in the study and two patients developed ventricular tachycardia and fibrillation respectively during the study period. After combining the endpoint of sudden death from a ventricular arrhythmia and the presence of ventricular arrhythmias on a Holter monitor, there was no significant correlation between the presence of a positive TWA and the presence of ventricular arrhythmias on the Holter monitor or a history of sudden death.  

Conclusion: TWA cannot be used as a non-invasive test for detecting patients with HCM and electrical instability. TWA is not useful for predicting sudden death in patients with HCM.

Background: Left ventricular outflow gradient is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Alcohol septal ablation is the alternative to surgery in cases refractory to drug therapy. The implication of LVOG[1] measured 1 week post-ASA[2] for prediction of outcome is unknown.

Objective: To observe the pattern of LVOG course and prediction of long-term clinical and hemodynamic outcome of ASA.

Methods: Baseline clinical and echocardiographic parameters were prospectively recorded in 14 consecutive patients with a first ASA, at the time of ASA, 3 and 7 days after ASA (in-hospital) and 3 and ≥ 12 months after ASA (last follow-up).

Results: There was improvement in NYHA class, exercise parameters and LVOG in 11 of 14 patients (P < 0.005 in all). Maximal creatine kinase level was lower than 500 U/L in those without such improvement and 850 U/L or higher in successful cases. LVOG dropped from 79 ± 30 to 19 ± 6 mmHg after the ASA. LVOG was 50 ± 21 mmHg on day 3, 39 ± 26 on day 7, 32 ± 26 at 3 months and 24 ± 20 mmHg at last follow-up. LVOG identified 27% sustained procedural successes on day 3 and 73% on day 7. The overall predictive accuracy of the test for sustained success and failure was 36% on day 3 and 71% on day 7. Combination of maximal CK[3] and LVOG on day 7 showed four distinct outcome patterns: "early success" with low LVOG and high CK (73% of successful cases), "late success" with high LVOG and high CK, and "early failure" and "late failure" with both low CK and high or low LVOG, respectively
Conclusion: LVOG measurement 7 days post-ASA combined with maximal CK levels predicts late procedural outcome in the majority of patients