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עמוד בית
Tue, 28.05.24

IRON SWORDS

IMAJ | volume 26

Journal 3, March 2024
pages: 141-142

A Statistical Approach to the High Mortality Rate of Israeli Citizens Held Hostage in Gaza

1 Deputy Director Office, Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, Israel 2 Department of Pediatrics, Shaare Zedek Medical Center, affiliated with the Hadassah–Hebrew University School of Medicine, Jerusalem, Israel 3 Leumit Health Services and Research Institute, Tel Aviv, Israel 4 Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel

Summary

Background:

According to Hamas sources, many Israeli hostages in Gaza were killed by indiscriminate Israeli airstrikes, together with a large number of Palestinian citizens.

Objectives:

To verify whether the estimated death rate of Israeli hostages was similar to the estimated death rate of Gaza citizens from these acts of war.

Methods:

We used two estimates of hostage death rates, one obtained from Israeli intelligence sources, and one published by a Hamas spokesperson. We used the Palestinian casualty rates published by the Palestinian Ministry of Health. We compared death rates using Fisher's exact test.

Results:

By 30 December 2023, the rate of Israeli hostage death was 23/238 (9.7%) according to Israeli intelligence sources, and 60/238 (25.2%) according to Hamas. Both figures are strikingly and significantly higher than the death rate among Palestinians, estimated to be 19,667/2.2 million (0.89%) by 19 December 2023 (P < 0.0001).

Conclusions:

Israeli airstrikes as the cause of death of Israeli hostages are implausible unless they were specifically exposed to these strikes more than Palestinian citizens.

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